mercredi 2 juillet 2014

What Everyone Keeps Missing About Egypt

After the 2013 protests against then president Morsi, the Egyptian military staged an organized coup and took out the elected government. The military sat in control, preventing chaos and further arguments from the many factions that stood opposed to one another in Egypt. As the popuilation largely cooled down -- with  a few incidents of tragedy -- the Egyptian military was accepted as the governing power until a fair and popular election could be held.

Right now, the world's 'experts' are unanimous in that General Abdel El-Sisi is the most ideal candidate for Egypt. This is based mostly on assumptions that Egypt needs a democracy. This is also based on the fatal assumption that Egyptians want democracy.

No.

Egyptians want a better life. How was Nasser elected? How was Anuar Sadat elected? How was Hosni Mubarak elected? They promised Egyptians that they would have a better life. Nasser completely failed at this. After assuring people of a better life than king Farouk, things got worse. Egypt faced massive inflation, curfews, and rising housing costs that made many Egyptians homeless. One reason for this is that his government was far too corrupt.

Anuar Sadat was the most successful. After Nasser, he focused heavily on city plannign and urban development, as well as water refinement and technological investment. A lot of the modernization of Egypt started with Anuar Sadat, and ended with Mubarak.

Mubarak, until his old age, was a popular leader who improved the Egyptian economy and kept peace with Israel as started by Sadat. This allowed for Egyptians to succeed in the Sinai, which had been lost in the 1967 War to Israel. Mubarak kept internal extremist organizations under control and removed from the parliament. However, as time progressed, the economy soured. Also, Egyptians have culturally changed and have become mroe polarized from a central Egyptian identity.

Morsi was the worst leader of Egpyt since Nasser. He was elected democratically, but immediately took to power as his predecessors. The problem here is that Morsi won as a candidate of the slight majority, rather than a candidate of the Egyptian people promising a better life for all. So when Morsi took further liberties to extend his authority and term in the constitution, this provoked a loud reaction.

In less than a year, Morsi was out of power.

What any expert is missing, is that Egyptians do not really want a democracy -- they want a leader who can give them a better life. Whether elected or not, that man is General Abdel El Sisi. And whether he performs the action or not, General Abdel El-Sisi has the powerful backing and military to maintain his leadership for 30 years. Unquestioned.


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