Powder Keg Awaiting A Lit Fuse

Right now Syria and Iraq are in a brutal blood bath; crossing religious, ethnic, economic and cultural boundaries. But what if there was a country equally as diverse, with vast social and economic differences of its own. Not only that, place that country right between the heat of fighting in Iraq and Syria.

Jordan - Bordered by Syria and Iraq

That country is Jordan. 

Yes, a country where the minority of Jordanian tribes rule over a Palestinian majority. Where there are Armenians, Christians, and Kurds living besides the Sunnis. And where the economic divide between rich and poor is growing each day, especially since the influx of Syrian and Iraqi refugees. Oh, and on top of it all, the king is a British appointed non-Jordanian who speaks broken Arabic having also grown up in London.

The Jordanian tribes have a deep and far rooted history, and a rich culture topped off with the central metropolis of Amman. 

Amman is one of the fastest growing cities in the Middle East and heavily received by tourists each year. However, the eastern part of Jordan is mostly arid and barren. There is a panhandle extended between Syria and Iraq, although not necessarily a target because Iraq and Syria share a border of their own.

However, in the heat of the current Middle East, interior and exterior factors are positioning Jordan as a powder keg. As discussed above, the country is becoming more divided between ethnic, social and economic rankings. The majority of Jordanian citizens are in fact Palestinians. However, there is a system in Jordan that favors good labor positions to Jordanians over equally or more-qualified Palestinians.

Amman

In addition to this, prices are inflating. Housing costs and real estate in Amman are climbing through the roof, at a time when impoverished Syrian refugees are seeking harbor. Refugee camps that outline the arid countryside are not fully being serviced and are cause for shortage across the country --affecting the middle class beyond all else.

However, Jordan has a thriving elite. Well connected, international community. This is something that Iraq and Syria did not have. In Jordan, successful and internationally connected individuals rise forth occasionally. The Hashemite Monarchy is kind and careful upon those that serve to expand its influence. In Iraq and Syria, the elite and positions were mostly given out of nepotism or to cronies that could not service the demands of the position. Jordan also has an efficient and well regulated military. While the effectiveness of the military has not undergone trial since 1967, in which Jordan gave up the West Bank to Israel after a failed invasion, this is not to say that the Jordanian army is weak. Should an external threat present itself, Jordan is the most prepared out of Syria and Iraq to combat it.

External influences facing Jordan come favorably and unfavorable. First is the growing ISIS organization that will not stop to employ tactics and carry out its plans to take over Jordan. The other influences are Jordan's close ties to the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These countries will support, if only financially, the Jordanian Kingdom to defend itself and keep itself integrated as an ally. ISIS is not likely to cut any deals with these three powers, and more unlikely is it that there will be mutual ground here to start a trusting relationship with ISIS.

The last influence is Saudi Arabia. A sometimes silent hegemony in the Mashriq, Saudi Arabi shares a large border with Iraq and an even larger one with Jordan. Should ISIS invade Jordan, Saudi Arabia will not be satisfied should their whole northern border be under control of terrorists that wish them harm and want their petroleum.