mardi 30 juin 2015

The Failed Politics of Fear - How ISIS Will Fall

ISIS, or Da3ch as better known by some, will not be the group a foreign power's army can defeat. ISIS is classified as a nation or rogue state, ISIS is an ideological movement.

The nature of the idea of ISIS can or can not be religious, this is rather irrelevant. While the origins of the ideological movement of ISIS are associated by leaders as coming from religious roots -- Islam, the most prevalent religion in the region -- ISIS represents a movement by those disgruntled with 30 years of unwelcomed leadership that has been oppressive towards the common man. The silent majority.

Why are they acting now? Why not 10 years ago? The affects of social media have liberated the world from man's greatest fear : the unknown. Before, a government could boast about having the interests of the people as a priority while swiftly acting to do the opposite in order to preserve its power. A perfect example of this is when Saddam Hussein executed a vast number of Shia Iraqis in Eastern Iraq.

Social media is able to create confidence in people. Like with the fall of Ghadaffi. It is one thing when an individual wants to see a new form of leadership. But when all his neighbors, countrymen, from city to city and village to village post and discuss the same thing publically online, this creates a collaborative confidence among the people. And successfully leads to a movement against the entity in power.

ISIS is an ideological movement spearheaded into ascension by successful use of social media. But, behind the ideas of fighting oppression, exists a leadership organization. There is always an organization of leadership. And with leadership comes delegation. Even in an absolute monarchy, when the head of state wields full power, he/she still delegates authority to his inner circle.

The way that ISIS will fall will be simple. And the words of Lord Acton summarize it perfectly : Power corrupts. And absolute power corrupts, absolutely.

Within the leadership of ISIS, Al-Baghdadi has liberally given his top generals a strong hold over their territories. The problem with this strategy is that cities are factors of vast resources. Infrastructure, capital resources and most importantly human resources. The human is an independent actor, but a leader can manipulate perception there. A human can feel enslaved or free, and the most influential factors here are education and the leader. Remember, no government or king can take away knowledge.

In Mosul, one of ISIS's larger claims in Iraq, Abu Usman Al-Hassan was conspiring a coup to take down the state. He was, however, caught and executed by ISIS. However, he will not be the last and may not even be the first, to try and commit such an action. ISIS will fall because a finite amount of power is in the hands of too many ambitious men.

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